LONDON / ConSynSer / – On Wednesday, October 21, oil prices increased with Brent crude futures climbing by $1.21 to reach $110 per barrel, according to Reuters. Simultaneously, US West Texas Intermediate crude also advanced more than $1, hitting $99 per barrel. The session was marked by volatility fueled by renewed attacks targeting shipping and energy sites in the Middle East. Investors balanced these risks against signs of a recovery in crude shipments from the Gulf. Currently, Brent is trading nearly 80% higher than it was a year ago.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced that naval mines had obstructed three tankers traveling through routes Tehran deems unauthorized. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported a vessel hit near Oman. Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield, as well as attacks on airports in Riyadh and Abha. These incidents have rekindled concerns over supply routes passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Throughout the day, oil prices experienced significant fluctuations. Brent pared its gains later in the trading session, dropping below $108 at one point. WTI briefly reached $100 before slipping under $98. Elevated freight rates in the Persian Gulf continued to support the upward trend. Over the past month, Brent has increased approximately 8%, according to Trading Economics data. Additionally, oil prices rebounded in late September after a four-session decline.
Gulf Export Flows Offset Supply Concerns
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz are approaching levels seen before the conflict. Data from Kpler and Vortexa tracking tanker movements show that Middle East crude exports have increased since summer. Producers are ramping up shuttle shipments through Hormuz and engaging in ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports in August rose by 7.9%, reaching their highest point since March. These recovering flows have helped to contain the price increases during Wednesday’s trading session.
US inventory figures also played a role in influencing market movements. The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude stocks decreased by just over 3 million barrels last week. In contrast, the American Petroleum Institute had announced a larger decline of 4.9 million barrels. US weekly crude production was approximately 13.27 million barrels per day, down from 13.68 million the previous week. These declining inventories suggest tighter supply conditions in the world’s largest oil-consuming nation.
Focus Turns to Russian Diesel and Saudi Attacks
Russia is scheduled to deliver its first shipment of diesel to the United States on Thursday, following an agreement between President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin. Trump waived Russia sanctions under the Graham Act last week, paving the way for this transaction. Meanwhile, Ukraine has launched substantial drone strikes against Russian oil infrastructure, signaling Kyiv’s efforts to prevent Moscow from expanding diesel exports, according to Trading Economics.
On October 22, prices surged again after a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field resulted in the deaths of two individuals. Brent exceeded $111 per barrel, and WTI moved above $99. The United States also issued orders for some personnel and family members to vacate its embassies in Saudi Arabia. Market participants continue to monitor developments in Gulf shipping, Saudi oil production, and Russian fuel flows to anticipate future price trends.